The El Niño weather phenomenon is projected to strengthen through 2027 and might become the most powerful on record, heightening the potential for extreme weather next year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. During a recent press conference in Geneva, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that if the current trend persists, this El Niño could surpass all previous observations in the past four decades. The UN weather agency’s latest forecasts indicate a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by exceptionally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This level of certainty is unprecedented, according to the WMO.
A robust El Niño has the capacity to significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to extreme weather occurrences such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the substantial growth of El Niño, stating that the scientific evidence is unequivocal: the planet is experiencing uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño is a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific resulting from weakened trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and causing heavy rains and droughts across Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño event has already impacted soft commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO anticipates the peak of this El Niño towards the end of the current year, with lasting effects expected into 2027 and potentially elevating global temperatures next year. Saulo emphasized the WMO’s heightened readiness and early warning initiatives in response to this situation.
Expressing commitment to collaborating with partners across the United Nations and the humanitarian system, Saulo highlighted the WMO’s role in providing essential climate data and insights to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.